How long will $1 million last in retirement?
The honest answer is a range, not a number. Here is what happens to a $1m portfolio at 65 across 1,000 simulated markets at three spending levels — and why Social Security matters more than the growth assumption.
The setup
A 65-year-old retires with $1,000,000 invested and no further contributions, planning to age 95. Social Security of $24,000 a year begins at 67 and rises with inflation, reducing what the portfolio must fund from that point on.
Assumptions used
- Age today / retiring at / plan to
- 65 / 65 / 95
- Starting portfolio
- $1,000,000
- Annual contributions until retirement
- $0
- Retirement spending from the portfolio
- $50,000 a year, today's money
- Guaranteed income
- $24,000 a year from age 67
- Expected return / inflation / volatility
- 6% / 2.5% / 13%
- Simulation
- 1,000 runs, returns drawn at random each year
- Social Security is entered as a household figure; check your own at ssa.gov rather than using ours.
- Required minimum distributions are not modelled — they affect the tax bill, not whether the money lasts.
Taxes, platform charges and changes in spending through retirement are not modelled. Figures are illustrations produced by the Retiris model, not predictions.
Results across 1,000 simulated markets
| Scenario | Runs that lasted | Median years funded | Typical shortfall age | Steady projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 spending | 99% | 30 | 93 | $1,807,486 left at 95 |
| $50,000 spending | 92% | 30 | 91 | $1,267,909 left at 95 |
| $60,000 spending | 73% | 30 | 90 | $728,332 left at 95 |
| $50,000, no Social Security | 42% | 28 | 87 | $40,283 left at 95 |
Middle of simulated outcomes, in today's money
Why the fourth row matters
The "no Social Security" run is not a realistic case for most people — it is there to show the size of the benefit. Removing an inflation-linked $24,000 a year from age 67 is equivalent to asking the portfolio to find roughly $600,000 of extra capital over a 30-year retirement. Any decision that raises that guaranteed income, including delaying a claim, is worth modelling properly.
The two-year bridge and the first decade
From 65 to 67 the portfolio funds everything. That short bridge is manageable, but the first ten years of retirement as a whole are where sequence risk lives: a poor run of returns while you are withdrawing permanently reduces the capital that has to compound later. Two to three years of spending held in cash or short-duration bonds is the standard defence, and it costs very little in expected return.
Model your own version
Try your own version
Everything else stays as set out in the assumptions above.
In this model, under these assumptions. Not advice, and not a forecast.
Practical steps
- Write down your gross annual withdrawal, not your take-home budget — taxes come out of the portfolio too.
- Get your actual Social Security estimate and model the claiming age you intend to use.
- Hold a cash buffer covering two to three years of portfolio spending.
- Agree in advance what you would cut if the portfolio fell 25% in year two. A plan with a written rule beats one without.
Frequently asked questions
How long will $1 million last in retirement?▾
It depends almost entirely on spending. In these runs, $40,000 a year alongside Social Security funds the full 30 years in the large majority of simulated markets, $50,000 is comfortable but less certain, and $60,000 fails in a meaningful share of them.
Can I retire at 65 with $1 million?▾
For a household spending $40,000–$50,000 a year from the portfolio with Social Security starting at 67, yes in most modelled markets. The risk is not the pot size but a high fixed spending level combined with a poor first decade of returns.
How much monthly income does $1 million produce?▾
A 4% starting withdrawal is $40,000 a year, about $3,333 a month before tax, rising with inflation. Add Social Security and a typical household total is meaningfully higher.
Does claiming Social Security later help?▾
Delaying raises the guaranteed, inflation-linked amount you receive for life, which reduces the portfolio's job in the later years. The cost is heavier portfolio withdrawals in the bridge years, so the net effect depends on how large the delay-adjusted benefit is relative to your spending.
Is tax included?▾
No. Withdrawals from traditional 401(k) and IRA balances are taxable income. Enter spending as the gross amount you need to withdraw, not your after-tax budget.
Sources
Modelled figures on this page were produced with the Retiris retirement model, described in full on how the model works. They are illustrations of hypothetical scenarios, not research findings about real households.
Retiris tools
Retiris publishes educational planning tools and analysis. Nothing on this page is personalised financial advice, and modelled scenarios are illustrations rather than predictions. See our editorial methodology and disclaimer.